2002

HIGH SCHOOL WRESTLING

FORECAST

(31st Annual Edition)

Written By:
Brian Brakeman

The High School Wrestling Forecast (commonly referred to as the Brakeman Report) was provided to the The Ohio Wrestling Sport Page (A web site dedicated to Ohio Wrestling, supported by the Wrestling Community in the State of Ohio).

Copyright 2002, Reproduction of this material for profit without written consent is prohibited.

Division II

103#

Projected Champion:  RYAN SMITH (OLMSTED FALLS)

Top Contenders

One of the special hazards of forecasting is attempting to choose between two roughly equivalent wrestlers with wildly diverging styles who have met a number of times.  You keep thinking that with only two choices, and lots of past experience, the right analytics should make the selection obvious.  But it doesn’t work that way.  No one can know who, in each instance, will be able to impose their style on the opponent.  It’s exactly the situation we have at this weight class.  Smith and Compton look to be a level above the rest of a very competitive field, but which one will take home the title?

Let’s look at the facts.  Nearly three years ago Smith slowed down Compton to become the first ever junior high state champion (and then became the first two-time champ a year later).  He has a slightly down tempo, methodical style that minimizes error.  Last year he went 35-3 at this weight class finishing a strong 3^rd at the state meet.  He was the only wrestler to give eventual champ Deubel a battle losing 8-6 in the semi-finals.  This year he is undefeated at 103#, including a Medina title where he handily defeated Light and Iovine back-to-back.  Compton, far flashier and more athletic, has been devastating at 103# with smashing wins at Wadsworth and the Gorman.  Last year Compton defeated Smith in overtime to win the district title, but then lost the next week at Columbus, 8-2, and finished 5^th.  Again this year they exit the same district so they’ll be apart in Columbus.  My feeling is that Smith will somehow neutralize Compton’s speed and power with superior defense and then score just enough to win a relatively low scoring battle.  The key will be his ability to impose his will on Compton.  It will be fascinating to see how this plays out.

It is a solid field at Galion, but with Smith and Compton both there, everyone else will be competing for just two spots.  The big unknown is LaScala.  He has certified at 103# and will be a potential state place winner if he can hold that weight and still wrestle at close-to-peak efficiency.  The trio of Kline, Kibler, and Kidwell (sounds like a law firm) would then be the co-favorites for the last state spot.  Should LaScala not be here then their chances double, and, perhaps, a Schaefer (Perkins) or Thurn (Clyde) can sneak into the top quartet.

It’s an excellent and closely bunched field at Firestone.  State qualifier Laughlin lost an opening round overtime decision to Pizzurro last year at Columbus, and then reeled off four wins to finish 4^th.  This year he has wrestled an aggressive schedule that included a 4^th at the Top Gun and a 2^nd at North Canton.  Protz has shown rapid improvement and was 1^st at Kenston and 2^nd at the Top Gun (though he did not wrestle Laughlin).  One who did wrestle him  -- and beat him – is Albaugh who may end up a finalist at this district.  McCahan was 3^rd in Division III last year at this weight class, but he’ll have a real battle just getting out of this district.  Bartley, Simpson, Manthey, and Porter (Springfield) are all capable of earning a bracket spot in Columbus. 

Pizzurro and Jackson are the two standouts at Watkins and, if paired correctly, will probably end up as the finalists.  Pizzurro was 2^nd at Brecksville, and I thought he looked very good there.  I believe he has definite placement potential.  After this duo there is a drop-off with Smith and Kempf probably next best.

There are three state qualifiers at Springfield with Bowers, Lindquist and Niswonger all having that experience last year.  Bowers could upset the applecart when it comes to a potential Smith vs. Compton final.  Last year he entered the state tournament as the district champ having beaten Pizzurro 9-3, with a record of 45-1.  He beat the experienced Kahn in overtime in the initial round and then gave Smith all he could handle before narrowly losing 3-2.  Laughlin knocked him off later in the placement round.  His big negative is the lack of a big-time schedule which sharpens people like Smith and Laughlin.  Still, he is a real talent.  Lindquist has got to be getting even better with the workout partners available at Graham, while Niswonger moves up from Division III.  After that it’s pretty much indeterminate.

112#

Projected Champion:  DUSTIN SCHLATTER (GRAHAM)

Top Contenders

I cannot remember a year when more brilliant freshmen have burst upon the scene.  Doggett, Lipp, Scaletta, Marshall, Horne, and yet another Opfer have all been high impact performers in their first year of varsity wrestling – and there are a large number nearly as good as those mentioned.  Yet, Dustin Schlatter towers well above even this elite group.  He is quite possibly the finest freshman in Ohio history with technique, strength and intelligence that belies his youth.  He faces a star-studded field at this weight class that includes a returning Division I state champ (LaFollette), two runners-up (Gilsdorf and Franklin) and a bevy of returning qualifiers.  Nonetheless, he will be a huge favorite to win here.  During the first week of the season he won the prestigious Ironman title defeating the #4 nationally ranked Robbie Preston, 9-2.  The only real issue will be remaining injury-free and able to compete at the 100% level.

LaFollette pretty much stunned everyone at the state meet.  He came in as a district 4^th place finisher in Division I and then proceeded to win four straight bouts and the state crown.  In the process he defeated Paglia and Gilsdorf, both undefeated at that juncture, in what has to be two of the bigger, consecutive upsets in state tourney history.  He may well wish that Akron Springfield had remained in Division I since he would be a mild favorite to win again.  Instead he’ll probably enter the state meet as a district champ and, certainly, as an even bigger underdog than he was last year.  Fate certainly springs rare surprises on us all.  However, if someone is to catch Schlatter, and that’s a very low probability event, it will probably be LaFollette.  The rest of the Firestone District is pretty pedestrian with Naso, French, and state qualifier Sandy, next in line.  Jones has quietly fashioned a very good year and he could be a factor as well as Connelly, the recent CIT champ.  Other possibilities are Yaros, Handy, Horne (Aurora) and Carter (Conneaut).

Schlatter is well ahead of the pack at Springfield.  He beat state runner-up Franklin in a dual meet, 17-2, which gives the approximate distance between him and the next best.  Franklin will be away from Schlatter at the state meet and that will surely be cause for joy.  Browning, a two-time state qualifier, has been injured, but will be ready by tournament time.  It should be an interesting battle between he and Franklin.  Penny is an excellent young wrestler who was 3^rd in the junior high state meet two years ago, losing only to Steve Luke.  Dailey, Finkbine, and maybe, Webb (Circleville) or Jett (Little Miami) are next best.

The more I examine this weight class the more I realize how many superior wrestlers are competing here.  For example, Division I state runner-up Leif Gilsdorf is rated only third best at this weight class, and he would be a state championship “lockin” many years.  As mentioned, his only defeat last year was in the state finals, but he has bounced back to craft another excellent (although not undefeated) season.  There is plenty of idle discussion that Gilsdorf may yet opt to go at 119# because of his problems with the weight, but I’m thinking the three pound allowance might be just right.  He certainly could be a finalist again, but he will not be favored this time.  Right behind him is placer Schmidt who has taken on new life now that he has dropped to 112#.  Even before that he was champion at 119# at Tiffin and DeSales, and then 3^rd at 112# at North Canton.  Kissinger really has done well this year, including a win at Perrysburg where he defeated Zychowitz (who beat Gilsdorf).  That leaves state qualifier Rabung on the “thin edge,” though with all four of the top boys coming from two sectionals the pairings should be good.  If not, Ysguirre might well get to Columbus. 

State placer Reichman stands out at Watkins.  He has put together a solid season, and his runner-up finish at the Top Gun suggests he’s peaking at just the right time.  Hoover, just down from 119#, was 2^nd at the OVAC, giving the top-seeded Lucas Huffman all he could handle in the finals.  After that the competition is wide-open, and I expect at least one unfamiliar name escaping that district.

119#

Projected Champion:  RICKY DEUBEL (KENSTON)

Top Contenders

If you thought 112# was loaded just take a look at this weight class.  It has to be the finest, deepest weight class of the 42 we’ll see in 2002, and one of the finest in the decade.  As currently constituted (and LaFollette and Turchetta have already left) it features two returning state champs, a two-time state runner-up, four other state placers, and a total of 18 state qualifiers – and that’s not counting the sensational freshman Doggett who just might win it all.  I’ve got to believe that some of these folks (like state placer Turchetta has already done) will move to the far more congenial 125# class.  That’s a weight where I’m struggling to pinpoint a possible champion, whereas here I have an embarrassment of riches.

My choice is the defending state champ Ricky Deubel.  After all, it’s difficult to pick against a wrestler who has begun his high school career with 60 consecutive victories and that 103# title last year.  Not only that, but he spent the summer getting bigger, stronger, and better.  But, still, I have reservations.  Deubel does not wrestle a terrifically vigorous schedule like a Zupancic or a Doggett.  He did win at Kenston, North Canton, and the WRC, but he has not yet faced any of my top dozen choices at this weight class.  I think he’ll win it, but my guess is he’ll suffer a loss at the sectional or district level.  Two-time state runner-up Zupancic always seems to wrestle the most difficult possible schedule.  When you look at his record your immediate reaction is that he’ll never make the state finals – but he does.  His big victory was at Mayfield where he upset Division I state champ Mark Moos on a tiebreaker.  He knows how to keep the score close, and then find a way to win.  Besides these two, defending Division III state champion Adam Buzek is also at Firestone.  A recent impressive winner at the CIT, Buzek also won at Wadsworth.  He has the unusual distinction of wrestling in Division I as a sophomore, Division III as a junior, and Division II in his senior year.  Also at Firestone are state qualifier Kahn, Kemble (who defeated LaFollette earlier this year), Bourquin, and the fine freshman Murton.  It’s a fabulous competition, but the pairings may be difficult since Deubel, Zupancic, and Kahn all compete at the Kenston Sectional.

It doesn’t get any easier at Springfield.  Doggett is a two-time state junior high champ who might be labeled the best freshman in the state if it were not for his teammate, Schlatter.  He was 3^rd at the Ironman (losing only to Moos) and 2^nd at Medina (again, losing only to Moos), and won everything else.  He defeated Deubel, 4-3, two years ago at the junior high state tourney, but that is probably not relevant.  Also at this district are state placer Klofta, three-time state qualifiers LaCure and Meinking, and state qualifiers Kremer, Lee, Riley, and Conger.  That’s six boys with previous state experience grasping for three (maybe four) state berths.  If no one moves up this will be an extremely hard-fought battle.  I guess I’d favor Meinking, Klofta, and LaCure, but luck will probably play a significant role in this process, particularly since four of the seven are at the same sectional.  Possibly gaining an advantage from that is Conger who will dominate his sectional, and who has had yet another splendid year 

State placers Perez and Lochotzki head a strong field at Galion.  Perez, in particular, will be a real factor at the state level.  Last year he was a district 4^th, and was beaten 16-1 by eventual champ Velez in the first round.  He then won four bouts, including wins over Klofta, Sponseller, and Turchetta to finish 5^th.  This year he has been a scoring machine.  Lochotzki has had injury issues the past two seasons, but when healthy he is outstanding.  He was hurt against Doggett in the Medina semi-finals and has just returned.  State qualifiers Selover and Lashaway are also here, but face significant peril.  Smith defeated Selover twice at Brecksville, while Sheehan has been a force all year.

I was surprised when Vaughn moved down to 119#.  I saw him as a potential finalist at 125#, but it will not be easy here.  I recognize that moving Thress from 140# to 125# helped the team, but it’s yet to be shown how it will impact Vaughn.  He’ll be very good at either weight class.  Sponseller looked absolutely great at Brecksville winning at 119# over a fine field, including a likely West Virginia state champion.  I’m not sure that he even lost this year, and he, too, has been a fine youth wrestler.  State qualifier Woods and Miller are here, but Morgan is likely to eliminate one of them.  A transfer this year from Tri-Valley he is right on the periphery of being very, very good.  On a hot weekend he could place.

125#

Projected Champion:  THEO DOTSON (HAMILTON TWP.)

Top Contenders

While there are powerhouse weight classes at 112#, 119#, and 130#, there is a sharp drop-off in overall quality at this class.  There are no invincible super-stars who have driven potential competition to other weights, but instead, what I see here is possible opportunity for 119’s or 130’s who want to avoid the crowd at those classes.  As currently constituted we should see very sharp competition from the very first round, but not nearly at the level at most of the nearby weight classes.

Dotson, a transfer from Columbus DeSales was 5^th last year with wins over Stoffer, Maston, and Lochotzki.  This year he has gone undefeated, but Vaughn gave him a terrific bout before losing 13-12 OT.  Dotson has been good in close matches like that, and he’ll need to be to take the title at this weight class.  I anticipate that many of the bouts at the states will not be decided until the last few seconds testifying to the homogeneity at this weight class.

Dotson emerges from a district he should be able to dominate.  He is a defending district champion, and I foresee but two serious challengers.  One of them, Brown, he has defeated by a 9-3 count in an earlier triangular that also featured the Vaughn bout.  Brown was 2^nd at Brecksville including a big 7-6 win over Paglia in the semi-finals.  The other is OVAC champion Johnston who has put together a very fine year, including a title at Riverside where he beat the Division III stalwart, Caruso.  Thress is down from 140# and slots in nicely at this weight.  Watkins Memorial has five excellent wrestlers all about the same weight and it has caused some jockeying for position.  Hunt, Ziegler, or Apperson (Morgan) will also be contenders here.

The deepest district is at Firestone where nine potential qualifiers will battle for just four state berths.  It is from this direction that some of Dotson’s fiercest challengers will appear.  Turchetta was 6^th last year at 112# and has spent most of the year at 119#.  He beat Paparone to win at Solon and Bugara to triumph at Hudson.  He did not wrestle at Kenston or the WRC, but will now be at this weight.  He could easily be a finalist.  Another possible finalist is state qualifier Faist.  He won two state bouts at this weight in Columbus last year, but both were in consolation rounds and he did not place.  He was 2^nd at both North Canton and Kenston, but won the WRC.  His only losses are to state champion Jaggers (by one point) and Caruso (who he later defeated).  The big mystery is last year’s junior high state runner-up Mike Pucillo.  An exceptional wrestler, this freshman missed the entire season until wrestling at the Mayfield Big 8.  In an exceptionally difficult weight class he finished 3^rd – losing only to Jaggers – and defeating Brown, 17-6, and Division I third placer Agozzino, 8-3.  Is he for real?  You hate to base conclusions on a sample consisting of one weekend but he surely looks to be a major factor not only at Firestone, but at Columbus, too.  State qualifier Budd has also been excellent winning at Smithville and Chippewa and finishing 2^nd at Wadsworth (to Jaggers).  State qualifier Maston is also back, while less well-known competitors lurk in the background.  I’m thinking about Mihely, one bout from state last year, Huss, district semi-finalist last year, Dies champion Resh, and England.  Any of this group could pull some major surprises at Firestone.  Also don’t forget about Dreger who missed probable state qualification by one point last year.

There are some mysteries at Galion.  Russell was 4^th two years ago, but did not place last year.  Midlam beat him at the GMVWA by a point, but he has again wrestled well this year.  It will be interesting to see if he can duplicate or better his sophomore result.  Stoffer, also a state qualifier last year, has missed virtually the entire year.  I had rather anticipated that this would be a big year for him, but now that is certainly open to question.  Hoffman, on the other hand, has been very good all year except for one glitch.  He was first at Edison and second at Clyde, losing to Dotson, 8-7.  He, however, was an unaccountable 5^th at Southview.  Holler has been part and parcel of Buckeye’s fine lightweights.  He won at Perrysburg and Buckeye and was a semi-finalist at Medina.  This quartet would seem to be easily the best, but that is not to say an upset could not happen.

Midlam and Kozusek have pretty much had things their own way in the southwest.  Midlam, a state qualifier, is undefeated and Kozusek appears not to have lost as well.  Bey or Schlater will wrestle for St. Paris Graham and they could prove tougher than their record indicates because of the difficult schedule they wrestle.  Schlater, for example, moved up to 130# and majored Pizzurro.

130#

Projected Champion:  TONY CONSTANTINO (LAKE CATHOLIC)

Top Contenders

This should be an exceptionally entertaining and competitive weight, perhaps one of the best in the tourney.  It features a number of wrestlers with excellent credentials, most of whom wrestle with an all-out desire to win.  We don’t have too many of those “wrestle not to lose” defensive stalwarts whose prowess on not giving up points is only matched by their own inability to score.  With Constantino, Evans, Thompson, and especially Vince, we have state placers who enjoy the art of the attack.  Add in Martin, Gross, Gulosh, and Pizzurro and it’s one of the best bracket sheets at this weight class in a long time.  Two-time state runner-up Mike Hurley, who wrestled at this weight class in Reno and at Wadsworth, has apparently chosen to compete at 140#.  His inclusion at this class would have made for an even more riotous donnybrook.  Let’s take a look at the top contenders.

Constantino was 2^nd at 119# losing to three-time champ Kyle Ott in the finals.  This year he won big at Dublin, ripped Harrison and Gross to win at the CIT, and was undefeated at the State Duals including a 12-4 win over Gulosh.  At Medina he lost to Evans in overtime in the semi-finals, defeated Williams and then was nipped by two-time state champ Ryan Lang, 3-2, in the battle for 3^rd.  While the Evans bout went into overtime I thought Evans for the most part dominated, and it was Constantino’s guile that tied it at 7-7 in regulation -- a good demonstration of his ability to retain a measure of control even in a difficult situation. 

Thompson will exit the same district as Contantino, so Evans would probably have to beat them both to win.  At Medina Thompson was brilliant.  He beat Lang in the semi-finals and then nipped Evans 8-7 in the finals.  He is an all-out attacker with great speed and ferocious strength.  He was 5^th in Division I last year, and is undefeated this season.  Most recently he defeated Williams, 19-11 to win the Dies.

Evans is another superb Graham wrestler.  He was 4^th at this weight last year after losing a 16-13 semi-final “barnburner” to Vince.  I thought he looked sluggish at the Ironman losing to Gulosh and Smilek, but he was excellent at Medina defeating both Martin and Constantino in overtime before losing to Thompson.  If he wrestles every bout like he did against Constantino he’ll take the title.

Vince is another attacker.  If he wrestles Thompson they’ll need two scorers and a super computer to tally the score.  He was state runner-up at this weight class last year defeating Evans, but losing to C.P. Schlatter.  Mierau upset him the first week of the season, but since then he’s been exceptional.  He may not be as battle-hardened as some of the others with his somewhat softer schedule, but then I would have said that last year 

Gulosh is an excellent third choice at the tough Firestone District.  He has defeated Evans, split with Lang and, generally, been difficult to defeat.  He has good placement potential.  Wilson certified at 125#, but I’m guessing he’ll be here because this district is not nearly as deep at 130# as it is at 125#.  Of course, the top three are all superb.  After him, Ondecker, Wallace, Ranallo, and Hurley will look for some way to make the top quartet.

Evans should dominate at Springfield.  Taylor and Harrison are returning state qualifiers, but I just don’t see them within a half dozen points of Evans.  Robinson, Kanta, and Slonaker are three who’ll compete for the last state spot.

It should be an interesting battle at Galion.  Vince would have to be afforded the favorite role, but Gross is very solid and could easily pull an upset.  Williams went 19-11 with Thompson at the Dies and he’ll try to outscore Vince.  Both boys are former state qualifiers.  Holmes is very much under-rated and deserves the fourth spot (or maybe, more) here.  He’s been at 135# much of the year, and will be very strong at this weight.  A district semi-finalist last year, he’ll sneak up on a few people.  Reyna is also good, but is fighting the injury bug.  Quevedo certified at 119#, but I’m thinking he may have second thoughts considering the depth of talent there.  With Russell at 125#, he’ll only have two very difficult choices.

Martin has really come into his own this year and definitely has high placement potential.  He’s been at three different weight classes this year, but this seems to be his prime place.  He lost to Evans in overtime at Medina, but still finished 5^th (Lang also beat him), but has won just about everything else.  A state qualifier at this weight class last year, he had a very tough draw and went 1-2.  Like Evans at Springfield he should dominate in his district.

 135#

Projected Champion:  C. P. SCHLATTER (GRAHAM)

 Top Contenders

Jean-Baptiste Lully was the “Composer to the King” during the reign of Louis XIV in 17^th century France.  Almost forgotten today his operas were enormously popular in Paris, although the Church condemned them.  He died of gangrene brought about by the incessant pounding of a heavy walking stick on his foot as he beat time while conducting.  He refused amputation which might have saved him and instead called for a priest.  The priest spotted the manuscript for Lully’s latest (and best) opera, and refused absolution unless it was burned.  Lully hesitated and then did as the priest had asked – but he did so with an easy heart.  He had, as was his practice, made a second copy stored in his desk.

That kind of anticipation and thoroughness is a trait of many excellent wrestlers.  A particularly good example is the Graham super-star, C. P. Schlatter.  This is a wrestler who performs with machine-like precision and thoroughness.  He has an uncanny way of anticipating an opponent’s every more and countering it almost before it happens.  Already a two-time state champ, his only high school loss was an out-of-state overtime loss in a bout he led 4-1 at one point.  Probably the best junior middleweight in the country, his very presence has created a trough in the weight distributions at 135# with corresponding peaks at 130# and 140#.  He reminds me in many ways of one of the finest middleweights in Ohio – two-time state champion and national champion Jimmy Heffernan.  He exhibits the same cool professionalism no matter what the circumstances and consequently performs much better under pressure than his opponent.

Schlatter dominates at Springfield, just as he does in Ohio, and will in the country one day.  His mere presence seems to have created a vacuum which will allow two journeymen wrestlers to qualify for Columbus.  In fact, the only other “left column” wrestler from this area is McSorley.  He has put together an undefeated season that, in reality, includes the only tie bout of the year.  In the finals at a major tournament McSorley, wrestling the Kentucky state champ, trailed 8-6 near the end of the bout.  A stalling call against his opponent (his fourth) should have given him two points, but somehow the referee and the scoring table only awarded one.  The error was not found until 30 minutes later so that McSorley tied the bout, but lost the tournament.  Even though McSorley has good placement potential, such an eventuality is not likely to occur in his bout with Schlatter.

State semi-finalist and 4^th place finisher Gomoll heads a very representative group of 135’s at Galion.  This is his second year of outstanding accomplishment and he could well be a finalist – if he draws away from Schlatter.  Roush and Blackburn both have state experience, but appear to be a step behind Gomoll.  Roush was 2^nd at the GMVWA losing only 9-7 to the excellent Wolf.  Spurlock moved ahead of Blackburn with a 6-2 win at Clyde and has picked it up since losing to Hastings at Avon Lake.  Holler, Sanchez, and Slaughterbeck are other possibilities, with Cornell (Port Clinton) and Wagner (Eastwood) also in the mix.  Weight (Fairview) had a great freshman season but has not done much the past two years.  He could be a “sleeper” in this his senior season.

Montgomery has had a great year at Alliance and I’ve moved him ahead of Turchetta, although I think both will place.  Montgomery has certified at 130#, but I think he’ll end up here where he has finalist potential.  Turchetta was a surprise placer last year, but will not “sneak” upon the field this year.  He was 3^rd at Solon, 2^nd at Hudson (where he beat Gomoll) and the WRC, and 1^st at Kenston.  Nelson, who may be at 130#, just won the CIT title while Henry, Napalo, and Hazlett have put together strong seasons.  The little publicized Gibson could turn up big, especially coming in with a sectional title and a good bracket position.  A top contender here would have been Inghram (Lake Catholic) who unfortunately, fractured a leg and is apparently out for the year.  Cost and Manges (Aurora) are two other possibilities.

It is not real clear at Watkins.  Razzano has really improved and, I believe, might now be best here.  Barath is now the only undefeated wrestler in the Valley after winning the OVAC and going to 19-0.  Division I state qualifier Varner is now at this district and should be an important component in its outcome.  He was 4^th at the OVAC.  State qualifier DiPietro has been doing the Watkins Memorial shuffle, but will probably end up here.  He could qualify but he’ll have to beat the recently trimmed down Williams who is a much bigger boy.  Klingensmith is also a possibility here.

140#

Projected Champion:  MIKE HURLEY (AKRON ST. VINCENT)

Top Contenders

We have here yet another fine weight class with four returning state placers and a number of other top-flight competitors.  The top trio are just millimeters apart with Hurley (coming from Division III) having defeated Garner by one point and Knull in overtime.  One of the compelling stories will be Mike Hurley’s last shot at that very elusive state title.  Two years ago he swept through the district at 130# and then had three crushing wins at the state level.  In the finals against Linsker (who he had defeated in the districts) Hurley had a comfortable lead deep into the 3^rd period when he got caught in a spladle and pinned.  Last year he again dominated district action pinning Smilek in 37 seconds in the final.  Three state wins (two in under a minute) propelled him into the finals against the selfsame Smilek.  Again Hurley had a sizable lead, but Smilek, in dramatic fashion had a huge third period and won 9-7.

Hurley has looked totally rejuvenated since he came back from 130#.  He is just crushing everybody and the 6-0 whitewash win over Baria to grab the CIT was very impressive.  If he can stay healthy, and have a great 3^rd period in the finals, he should take the title this year.  This is the third consecutive year I’ve chosen Hurley, and this time both he and I will be in the winner’s circle on this one.

Hurley’s biggest threat might come from his own district.  Garner was 3^rd last year, and he is just a very rugged competitor.  He has split two bouts with the excellent Pierce (10-13 and 11-10), and wrestled both Hurley and Knull on a basically even basis, losing to Hurley in overtime (though that was before Hurley’s recent surge) and splitting two bouts with Knull.  The sophomore Butzer has really gotten better and has excellent placement chances.  He was 3^rd at Medina, losing only to Pierce, 14-11.  State qualifier SanFilippo is also here and that forms an excellent quartet of state caliber wrestlers.  I am concerned with the pairings since Butzer and Hurley exit the same sectional so that an unlucky pairing could eliminate one of this foursome.

Knull, like so many of the Graham stars, will dominate at Springfield.  He should be less “nicked up” at states than the other top competitors because of his easier path to Columbus.  However, there are a phalanx of good wrestlers competing for the last three spots.  I like state qualifier Couch to gain one of these positions, but the state qualifiers Ferris and Munyan will battle with the up-and-coming Ray, Goebel, Westbrook (Vincent Warren) and Rumpke (Preble Shawnee).

I think it’s probably a two-man battle at Watkins with Lovell and state qualifier Walker facing off for top honors.  Lovell is finally healthy and it shows in his results.  He was 3^rd at Brecksville and won at DeSales.  He beat Knull in overtime in their last dual, but lacks state experience.  Garner beat him 3-2 at Mayfield so he’s “right there” with my top trio.  Barrett is down from 145# and should do well here, while Steil has had some great results recently.  That means Kerr will have to battle to gain a return trip to Columbus, while Summers may be seeing his odds of state qualification lengthen. 

The Galion District is again crowded with potential state qualifiers.  I was very surprised that Randazzo grabbed a state place last year, but he is showing that it is no fluke this year.  He was 2^nd at Brecksville to the mighty McIntire and 3^rd at the CIT losing only to Baria and defeating SanFilippo.  In addition, he was an easy champ at Avon Lake.  There is a real logjam behind him with state qualifier Jarrett battling excellent wrestlers like Krawcyzk, Jarrett, and Sparenga for a Columbus trip and two (maybe, three) days out of school. 

145#

Projected Champion:  RYAN HURLEY (AKRON ST. VINCENT)

Top Contenders

While this is a competitive weight class, the two top contenders would seem to be one level above everyone else.  Hurley was a state runner-up two years ago at 135# and then dominated at 140# last year – his closest state bout a 16-6 win.  He tech falled an injured Linsker not only to win an individual title, but those bonus points wonning the team title for Akron St. Vincent as well.  This was all in Division III where he finished with a 41-1 record and was labeled as “unrideable” by his coach.  Markley was 4^th at 125# as a sophomore and then reached the finals at 140# last season before losing a match to the unheralded Squire.  In my view Hurley is the more explosive and athletic of the duo and must be accorded the favorite’s role.  Yes, I know that Markley defeated him 8-5 the first week of the season, but Hurley was just back from starting on his play-off football team.  He was not yet in wrestling shape, but he will be by tournament time.

This is a weight class where good wrestlers will have every chance to qualify.  None of the districts are so tough that an exceptional state candidate will walk away empty-handed.  For example, at Firestone Hurley will be the only participant with previous state experience.  Ging, who I’ve rated second best at this location, lost his go-to-state bout last year by two points to state placer Slattery.  This year he was 3^rd at North Canton and was 1^st at Kenston handily defeating Cornwell.  However, Penn beat him, but only 2-1, at the WRC.  Sutcliffe beat Tuttle at the Dies, and both are also top contenders for a state spot.  Hilliard has been a consistent placer, while Dolce is just down from successful work at 160#.  This is a solid group headed by the charismatic Hurley, and should do well at Columbus.

Markley has had an extremely busy year.  He was a strong 2^nd at the Ironman and won at Graham and Medina.  If Graham wins early at the state meet that momentum could sweep him by Hurley.  Shriner comes from an out-of-the-way part of the state, but he is genuinely first rate.  He was 3^rd at Medina losing only to Markley and beating Adkins, Diefenthaler, Dotson, and Hardy.  He has the ability to be Sheridan’s first ever state champ, but not at this weight class this year.  State qualifier Christensen has crafted a great year and certainly has placement aspirations.  One issue is the likelihood of a 3^rd or 4^th place district finish and the subsequent probability of a difficult bracket position.  That leaves state qualifier Cooper, on the edge of qualification with Walton at 22-3 and Harmon right behind him.  Add in Glancy, Phelphs (Hamilton Ross), Jones (Roger Bacon) and Flinders (Little Miami) and this is the deepest district.

The competition at Galion will not be nearly as strong.  State qualifiers Adkins and Westhoven return looking to better their 1-4 combined record at Columbus last year.  Becka may be about to catch them after 2^nd place finishes at Brecksville, the CIT, and Avon Lake (where he lost to Ging).  Becka has faced both Pflug and Hurley this year so he should be very familiar with rugged competition.  Diefenthaler might be fourth best, but that’s only if he can beat Bolanis in the wrestle off.  After that it’s totally wide open.

I don’t see much at Watkins.  State qualifier Shaw returns, but he was 3^rd at the OVAC and did not place at Medina.  Davis is very good, but is probably wrestling two weight classes higher than would be ideal.  A “sleeper” here might be Aubihl who won at Smithville and Vermillion and has previous district experience.

152#

Projected Champion:  LUIS GALVAN (BENEDICTINE)

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After missing his sophomore year because of a serious injury Louis Galvan exploded onto the scene last January with a remarkable display of speed and power at the CIT.  By sectionals I had him rated second best at 152# and fully capable of severely challenging defending state champ (and eventual National High School runner-up) Keith Cupp.  The sectionals and districts were a shower of falls and crushes with an 8-0 shutout his closest bout at either venue.  Then, after a 22-6 opening round win at Columbus, he lost 10-7 to Wickert – the same opponent he had defeated 14-5 at the CIT.  The dream match-up never occurred, but Galvan stomped through four consolation rounds to finish 3^rd.  This year it’s more of the same with one crushing win following another.  He has been champ at Riverside and Brecksville (pins in both finals) and is currently undefeated and unchallenged.  While state runner-up Busnick, state runner-up Maxworthy, Slattery, Beers, Deering, and Wilhelm are excellent competitors, Galvan’s biggest challenge may be to remain healthy and focused. I provide all this certainty about Galvan despite knowing two things – his injury issues are real as witnessed by his final round forfeit at the CIT, and this is the best of the 42 weight classes with the exception of 119# (and it’s close).  The matchups will be great.

There are two exceptional competitions besides Galvan at Galion.  Maxworthy, after six regular season losses, was perfect at both the sectional and district level, and then won three major decisions at Columbus before losing to two-time champ Cupp in the 152-pound final.  I can’t ever remember rating a returning state runner-up at the same weight as low as I’ve rated Maxworthy suggesting, perhaps, a major mistake.  This year Maxworthy has won at Buckeye and Perrysburg, while finishing 2^nd to Busnick at the Top Gun.  Deering was 5^th last year at 145# (including a win over Slattery) and I anticipated his return to that weight.  Instead he has stayed here and done well, losing only to his nemesis, Busnick, at North Canton.  Rather oddly, Galvan, Maxworthy, and Deering were all district champs last year, and all placed at the state level.  State qualifier Gibbs is the top choice for last spot, but he had an erratic season.  The freshman Ramirez, Hoehn (Wapakoneta), and Young are other possibilities as is the Bolanis – Diefenthaler loser in the Oak Harbor wrestle-off.

The Firestone District is also exceptional.  Busnick is a fabulous talent who just couldn’t beat Woodruff, losing in both the district and state finals.  This year he has “run the table” and will give a healthy Galvan a tremendous battle.  Slattery has wrestled one of the toughest schedules of any of the competitors with a 1^st at the CIT and a 2^nd at Medina.  He was 6^th at the state level, but could easily be a finalist this year.  Beers was 3^rd in Division III last year, and most of that was based on a very strong last third of the season.  His best tournament this year was a 2^nd at Wadsworth losing on a quick fall to Busnick in the finals.  He was 3^rd at the CIT losing only to Slattery in the semi-finals.  Right behind this top trio is the excellent state qualifier Smith who won two state bouts last year, and three tournaments this year including the Dies.  This is an outstanding quartet, but there’s more.  Lowther, Berquist, and Brenner are all state caliber wrestlers who would normally anticipate relatively easy state qualification.  Stuhlberg, who may not be as good on his feet on the mat as he is on the speaker’s dais, is also a possibility along with Davis (Kenston).

These two districts should collect most of the placement medals.  At Springfield we have a very large and closely bunched field, but the qualifiers will face tough sledding at Columbus.  I’ve singled out three contenders who are particularly strong – state qualifier Wilhelm, the exceptional freshman Erwin, and last year’s hard luck non-qualifier, Garvey.  Erwin was a junior high state runner-up at 120# last year (to Opfer) and is probably wrestling two or three weight classes above the optimum.  Still, Schlatter, Knull, and Markley are a tough trio to overcome, but he seems to have moved state qualifier Rush out of the line-up.  He was a very impressive 5^th at Medina losing only to my Division I pick, Scarl, twice.  Garvey lost consecutive 7-6 bouts on a Saturday in late February and did not get to Columbus.  The rest of the major players at this district are shown on the introductory grid.

In contrast to the other districts the field at Watkins is not particularly strong.  I do like Goans who was 2^nd at Brecksville and 3^rd at the Top Gun behind Busnick and Maxworthy.  Burns, Marsh, and Edwards are probably next, but you can expect an upset or two in this weight class.        

160#

Projected Champion:  CHRIS HAHN (MINERVA)

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